Wednesday, September 7, 2016

You knew it was coming!

I had a Hayward Kool-aid drinkin' devotee post the following:

"I may not be great in math, but I do understand that questioning surveys is usually an intelligent move. I looked at the methodology on the report. It said that 800 people were randomly chosen from the Escambia County voting roll. (Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. located in Washington, D.C., conducted this survey from June 22-28,2016. Eight hundred (800) registered Escambia County voters were interviewed by telephone.) EscambiaVotes.com shows TOTAL registered voters are 203,364. The sample accounts for 0.004 of the registered voters. Somebody check my math! If only 4 one thousandths of the population were surveyed, then one has to wonder what a larger sampling would have revealed."

"one has to wonder what a larger sampling would have revealed."

Does one?

You are right groupie, Mason Dixon is just like the local poll dude.  

  • Poor reputation
  • Don't know what they are doing.
  • Trying to get the Mayor of podunk P'cola
  • Has a hidden agenda
  • Doesn't know how to sample
  • Are a bunch of Hayward haters
What are you people smoking!  It's not legal yet.

Below is a ranking of every major polling company in America.  


Mason Dixon is rated B+ on a national scale.

Since 1983, Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. has conducted surveys in every state in the country, on almost every public issue, and tracked every major election and referendum. During this time, Mason-Dixon has earned the reputation as the most credible and accurate independent polling firm in the nation.

415 Mason Dixon polls were analyzed.  86% called correctly.  Simple average error rate was 5.2.  

OK give Hayward a 39.2% not a 28.8%!  

Does that make him a golden calf for you again?
Worthy of rose petals at his feet again?


9 comments:

Anonymous said...

I think I understand what the person is saying .... I think you're talking 4% of the City of Pensacola and calling it a good representative sample. Now if you would tell me that they polled say 40% of the city (8145 people) as a whole and got that same result it would be a better result ....good or bad in the ratings. Larger pulling sizes are always better.... Gives the results validity due to the survey sample size. I think that is what the person is stating. But I might be wrong.
Same argument different subject!
Do you think out of that sample size they all know about this blog? Say maybe 15% of them which is saying 120 of them know about it. I am sure I would be surprised about people know about the blog but I would be surprised if 30504 knew of it in the city. But again I could be wrong it is not unusual.

Anonymous said...

LMBO!!! Sounds like some folks are getting desperate. Well Maren, there are some people out there who actually think Charles Manson got a bad rap. Yeah, there are people who even drank the David Koresh kool-aid and we all know how that turned out. I don't have a problem with people drinking the Hayward-aid if that's what they choose to do, (It's beyond me why anybody would) but just don't try to convince everybody else to drink it.

Anonymous said...

Hilarious! The Kool-Aid drinking Bully Mayor Fan Club didn't have any problems with the polling last year from this reputable company. (As if Quint Studer would hire anything less than the best).
The Mayor is an un-qualified hack that has practically bankrupted our City. All this money spent on his outside law firms, witch hunts, hiring people with no credentials and paying them hush money, poor business decisions etc. and he's made a laughing stock of the whole City.

Anonymous said...

By all means people don't be fooled by scientifically proven facts and evidence. SMH... I love it when someone who thinks they're smarter than everyone else tells everyone what they should believe just because they said so. This wreaks of Bobby K. and crew. At least Beggs & Lane think Ashton's doing a great job because he helps them get plenty of dough.

Anonymous said...

Is it possible that a "...a larger sampling would have revealed."..an 18% approval rating???

Anonymous said...

Basic statistics at work:

To gather a 95% confident answer within plus or minus 3.5% for a population of 311,000 (Escambia County estimate, 2015) you need to poll 782 people. You can poll 10 times that many or 100 times that many (or all 311,000 if you like) and you will statistically get the same results.

Anonymous said...

All this math is making my brain hurt!

Anonymous said...

Maren, I love your blog and wait for the day Hayward is taken out in cuffs but you misunderstood question about the sample size. My point was just as one person stated: if a larger sample size had been taken, it could probably have been worse for Hayward. I thank the person with the statistical background for answering the question on validity. I am happy that the survey was valid. Just because one questions a survey doesn't make them a Kool-aid drinker.

Anonymous said...

People are right to question the validity of the survey. I have questioned it myself because I can't believe that Hayward has 45% of the population hoodwinked.